Pachter: “Nintendo is in disarray”

Love him or hate him, Michael Pachter has been sharing more thoughts on Nintendo’s handling of the Wii U. During his keynote at the Ayzenburg A-list Summit 2012, Pachter mentioned that he believes that Nintendo have “blown it” by not telling people what the price is going to be and that Nintendo have to launch their next home console at $249:

It’s going to launch at $249 because it has to. I think they’re dead anyway because Xbox with Kinect will be priced below that by the time they launch. Wii was a bubble and that the Wii bubble has burst.

Pachter also went on to mention that Nintendo have waited too long to release the Wii U:

Nintendo is in disarray because they waited too long to launch the Wii U. I know that this sounds like sour grapes because they didn’t launch the Wii HD in 2009 or 2010 as I ‘predicted’ – they should have, and because they didn’t, the decline in Wii and DS hardware and software sales drove them into generating losses.

He also believes that the market for the Wii U will be half the market of the Wii and that the casual gamers who bought the Wii have moved onto other platforms:

I believe that a large portion of the Wii audience comprised casual gamers – those who bought one or two games a year the first two years, then put the Wii aside – and that those casual gamers moved on to another platform. The “other” platform may have been Facebook games, smart phone games, tablet games, or one of the other consoles, but once they moved on, they are not likely to come back.

Pachter also discussed the consequences of Nintendo’s recent reports of losses:

I’m paid to advise investors, and none have made a profit owning Nintendo stock,” he said. “I don’t think that many will make a profit over the next few years, because I don’t think Nintendo’s strategy will return them to profitability. If the context above infuriates you, go back to school and pay attention, then read it again.

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Comments, Reactions, and General Hooliganism

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  1. miiworld2

    “They waited too long to launch the Wii U?”
    The Wii U is not even OUT yet, you bloody goo!

    • degesu

      That’s right, the Wii U should have been ready to launch after the last good Christmas sales period, which was 3 years ago.

    • Johnny

      @Degesu, they had a good sales period this Christmas with the 3DS, they didn’t need the Wii U, this year they’ll have a good sales period with the Wii U. I’m sure Nintendo will turn around before Sony does.

  2. Taun Taun

    I think he’s still assuming that the Wii U is only 50% faster than the Xbox360 or the PS3. If the Wii U is at least 5-6x as fast as a 360, then it’ll be part of the start of the next gen of systems. If it had come out when this guy wanted, then it wouldn’t be strong enough to compete with the 720 or PS4. Even if its weaker than those, it should be strong enough. Remember the PS2 was weaker than the Gamecube & Xbox. It didn’t hurt its market performance.

    • degesu

      I think he’s assuming people have bought the Wii because it was exciting and new, and those people won’t buy the Wii U because it’s the Wii with better graphics, and a screen on it’s controller.
      That might appeal to gamers, but the casuals don’t care.

  3. Can’t wait for his karma he’s getting @ E3.

    • degesu

      How can he get karma?
      He’s an analyst, he’s paid to analyse the moves of companies.
      He’s not going out taking Wii’s off shelves and burning them.
      He’s saying the Wii U might not go as well as Nintendo plan.

    • Deuce

      He talks in the realistic scenario. But realism often doesn’t really accommodate every single factor, just the bare facts.

  4. degesu

    He’s dead right about everything.
    They were caught completely off-guard by the Wii decline.
    The audience they expect isn’t there for the Wii U anymore.
    Iwata has “ballsed it up”.

    • foxuzamaki

      I love how ppl really think he’s right when 9 times out of 10 he just isnt lol, stop believing this guy

  5. RockD79

    Excellent Pachter. Open mouth, insert foot. Keep up the good work with your worthless job.

  6. Why do people keep giving this guy press? He’s wrong more than he’s right, and yet every word he utters is considered news. I haven’t published a word he’s said for at least a year.

    • Lene

      Wait… he was right for something one day? o_0

  7. Guy Guy

    I’m not infuriated. I’m just gonna go buy a Wii U.

  8. Sparkymoreno

    Haha! This guy is like the Kim Kardashian of videogame news. At least Kim wears her big ass on her lower back and not her head.
    Yes, Patcher, we know that Nintendo can shoot themselves in the foot but you cannot predict the outcome of a company that does their business “non-traditionally”. Its like trying to predict the moves of a drunken martial arts master. Think about it. Who would have thought the a console without HD and considerably less powerful that its competitors would be leading this generations console sells? Launched next to the PS3, coming off its Ps2 hotstreak.
    He says – “I don’t think Nintendo’s strategy will return them to profitability” Yea… just like their Crazy-looney-ridiculous-disarrayed Wii strategy… *sarcasm*
    And another question. Why would you predict casuals aren’t coming back to Nintendo?? Did the millions of “casual gamers” tell you this personally, Patcher? You seriously think that they will “never” buy a Nintendo product ever again? Gee… seem like another prediction pulled out of his ass…oops sorry I meant head..
    1) We don’t know everything about the Wii U. So him getting paid to analyze off of little information is similar to listening to a crazy homeless man rant about “2012” in the year 2015.
    2) Nintendo is long-running innovative company. Nintendo could have released the Wii U in 2030 and wouldn’t have mattered how late it was if no one else was gonna do it.

  9. Super Rock

    This man is Nintendo’s good luck charm. Every time he predicts failure for Nintendo, they go on to sell millions of units. He’s previous predictions are as follows: The PSP would will go on to dominate the portable games market as it is more powerful game system with multimedia functionality than the DS (we all know how that turned out). 2nd prediction, nintendo will bow out of this generation as the PS3 will become the dominant sells platform based of the performance of the previous two playstation platforms (we all know how that turned out).
    A true analyst looks at emerging trends and tries to capitalise on it. Patcher instead is trying to create a trend using he’s own personal opinions to sway gamer mindsets, hoping that gamers will follow to create a knock on effect in game sales. He has no interest in gaming or the future of its development. He’s interest only lies in how he can influence the market to make money from it.

  10. Super Rock

    One more thing. Besides this year and the rise of the Yen, Nintendo have recorded record profits for the wii and Ds year on year. Following from the end of the game cube to the introduction of the Wii, Nintendo’s share prise have risen year on year. As an analyst, I would have to question Patcher if he is claiming he could not see this trend or for the fact that none of he’s investors made any money from it!! He hedged he’s bet on Sony (PSP,PS3) brand being dominant in this console life cycle, but unfortunately neither sony nor Microsoft price have risen in the last 5 years. In fact Sony as a whole are in serious trouble with loses (in all divisions) whilst Microsoft have always been able to swallow up huge loses. After 6 years of failed predictions (seriously he hasn’t got one right) I am surprised that anyone would pay him to advise them.

  11. TimtheArcher

    Did anyone else think of tribes?
    From the V quick chat thing:
    “The enemy is in disarray!”

  12. N_S

    The Kinect cannot compete with a console. It’s the modern day SEGA 32X. I bet you didn’t know that it sold just as well as the Kinect, but like the Kinect, it did not sell games. Ten years from now the Kinect will be a meme and eveyone taking our place will have assumed it was a flop. The Kinect is a Wii Balance Board, or a Circle Pad Pro. It is not a new console. Could he argue that the 360 could hold it’s own against the Wii U? He certainly could. To argue that the Kinect can compete with any console as a console, however, shows that Patcher thinks gaming started in the N64 era.

    Any analyst who knew how the 16-bit era worked would have seen the Wii coming like a nuclear warhead. It was a completely different ballgame.

  13. Here’s something that makes me laugh. It’s taken from the Video Game Sales Wiki.

    Michael Pachter is a high-profile gaming research analyst who whines a lot and crushes anything HE doesn’t like or he is paid to crush.
    He recently started ranting about Nintendo’s next console, Wii U, and is speculating that it is not going to make it very far.
    Having done the same with the first Wii and failed big time we should not expect much from this stupid man whose only function in this world is to continuously rant and be hated by everyone.
    Pachter also likes talking about bubbles.

  14. Nintendoftw

    please don’t listen to Pachter